Since the MLB postseason has done its best impression of March Madness, here’s the second edition of my MLB postseason predictions.
My predictions for the MLB Postseason could not have gone worse. Just take a look.
Wild Card:
Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays.
St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies.
New York Mets over San Diego Padres.
Cleveland Guardians over Tampa Bay Rays.
Divisional Series:
Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners.
Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies.
Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets.
New York Yankees over Cleveland Guardians.
Ouch.
To be fair, I got the American League right. So it wasn’t all bad. But like most baseball writers, I couldn’t have been more wrong about the National League, as the Padres and Phillies each pulled off stunning upsets and will now square off in the NLCS.
So guess what that means? It’s time for MLB Postseason predictions, part two.
American League: Houston Astros over New York Yankees
I feel confident about this prediction. Perhaps too confident. But the Astros’ dominance against the Yankees in past postseasons is difficult to ignore.
The Astros have beaten the Yankees three separate times in the last seven postseasons. That includes the 2017 ALCS, in the heart of the Astros’ sign-stealing saga, and there is sure to be bad blood from the Yankees’ side as manager Aaron Boone told reporters in July: “Ultimately, we may have to slay the dragon, right?”
Now’s their chance.
I just don’t think they’ll be able to do it.
Even when the Yankees were surging earlier in the season, the Astros gave them fits. Now the Yankees enter this series on short rest (they defeated the Guardians on Tuesday night; the series against the Astros starts Wednesday night in Houston) and their No. 4 starter, Jameson Taillon, will start Game 1, squaring off against Justin Verlander.
Game 2 should feature a combination of Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. vs. Luis Severino. Oh, and against the Astros this year, Aaron Judge hit .148/.258/.370 with two home runs in 31 plate appearances.
National League: Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego Padres
I really struggled with this one. But as of this writing, the Phillies are coming off a 2-0 victory over the Padres in Game 1, and now have home-field advantage for the remainder of the NLCS.
Watching Zack Wheeler dominate a star-studded Padres lineup and knowing that Aaron Nola, who hasn’t allowed a run this entire postseason, takes the mound for Philadelphia in Game 2 … it’s hard not to take the Phillies in this series.
Besides, Bryce Harper has been worth every penny in the postseason. Kyle Schwarber appears to be back after hitting a 488-foot home run that broke a PETCO Park record. Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto remain dangerous and Brandon Marsh looks rejuvenated after only two months of working with hitting coach Kevin Long. Not to mention that the bullpen, led by Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado, has been terrific and appears to be a strength.
Picking against the Padres is hard. Really hard. Especially when their starting pitching is so deep and the offense has so many weapons, including annual MVP candidates in Juan Soto and Manny Machado.
But I keep coming back to this number: 1.17. That’s the Phillies’ starters’ ERA this postseason. And I think that’s what punches their ticket to the World Series.
World Series: Houston Astros over Philadelphia Phillies
In defense of my original postseason predictions, I had the Astros winning it all. I just had them facing the Braves, not the Phillies.
I still think that the Astros get the job done. But this would be a very intriguing matchup.
There would be plenty of offensive star power, of course, headlined by Harper, Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. But it would be two of the best pitching staffs (Houston: 2.25 ERA; Philadelphia: 2.55 ERA) squaring off each other in what would likely be a low-scoring series.
The Phillies, however, have shown an ability to come up big in key situations all postseason and their offensive numbers — .237 average, .317 OBP, .400 SLG, .717 OPS — rank third among all postseason teams. The Astros, meanwhile, rank seventh among postseason teams with a .217 average, .273 OBP, .388 SLG and .661 OPS.
The series would start in Houston and yes, the Phillies are 3-0 in Game 1s on the road. But I’m banking on the Astros’ previous postseason experience to help lead them to another World Series championship.
Astros in 6.