The New York Mets have plenty of questions to answer this offseason but the most important are all about their starting rotation.
The New York Mets aren’t the only team facing rotation uncertainty in 2023. In fact, that describes most teams. But the Mets, at least right now, arguably have more questions surrounding their rotation than anyone.
Jacob deGrom said that he will opt out of the final year of his contract. Chris Bassitt is likely to decline a $19 million mutual option to become a free agent. Taijuan Walker is likely to decline a $7 million player option for next year. The Mets continue to discuss whether to pick up Carlos Carrasco’s $14 million club option ($3 million) and while one source believes they will ultimately pick up that option, his extensive injury history could give the organization pause.
The only guarantees in the rotation are Max Scherzer, Tylor Megill, Joey Lucchesi and David Peterson. That’s it.
Not great.
The New York Mets have a lot of questions to answer about their rotation this offseason
Retaining deGrom will be the Mets’ top priority and it will get expensive, with the expectation in league circles that he will top Scherzer’s three-year, $130 million contract from last winter. When healthy, deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He’s won two Cy Young awards, throws 102 mph and has a slider that makes even the best hitters buckle to their knees. Owner Steve Cohen certainly has the money to re-sign him, but he has to be smart about it.
deGrom has an extensive recent injury history — he missed 13 months with a shoulder injury — and is about to enter his age-35 season. Will he maintain that level of dominance? Will the injuries just keep piling up? Those are among the questions that the Mets need to ponder internally for a pitcher who earned $33.5 million while throwing only 64 innings this season. But they also must leave enough money available to fill the other spots in the rotation.
This brings us to Bassitt, whose case is a bit more complicated. Before the season, the Mets traded prospects J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller for Bassitt. They had been hesitant to trade any of their top prospects, especially for rentals, but viewed the right-hander as a consistent strike-thrower who limits hard contact. For the most part, he thrived in New York, posting a 3.42 ERA in 157.1 innings this season, as the starter who kept the rotation afloat while Scherzer and deGrom dealt with injuries.
But he faltered in his final two starts of the season, a dud outing in a series against the Atlanta raves and a short outing against the San Diego Padres in the playoffs. So how much of a priority should Billy Eppler and the Mets front office place on re-signing Bassitt?
On the surface, the obvious answer is that the Mets should re-sign Bassitt to a multi-year contract. But he’s about to enter his age-34 season. deGrom is about to be 35. Scherzer is 38. Carrasco is 35. As Will Sammon of The Athletic noted, the Mets front office has prioritized building a sustainable winner. Is that possible when those four starters, if retained, would make in excess of $100 million just by themselves in 2023?
The Mets might prefer to go younger in the rotation, which could mean losing one or two of those starters. Internally, they are high on Peterson, 27, who posted a 3.86 ERA and 110 strikeouts in 91 innings. Perhaps they give him a shot to win a rotation spot. The free-agent market presents no obvious solutions. They could look at the trade market for a young starting pitcher (Pablo Lopez?) but would they be willing to take away from their farm system when they have been adamant about stockpiling it rather than depleting it?
It’s a complicated offseason for Eppler and the Mets front office to navigate, and reconfiguring the rotation will arguably be his toughest and biggest challenge since coming to New York.