Betting, Houston Astros

Mattress Mack appears less confident in Astros this year than last

Based on his first bet, it seems Mattress Mack isn’t all in on the Astros… Or he just hasn’t sold enough mattresses yet.

Opening Day is almost here, which means it’s time to survey the preseason World Series odds and see if anything strikes your fancy. Once games get going, those lines are subject to volatility.

Mattress Mack was the betting world’s main character during the Houston Astros‘ run to the World Series in 2022. He made several massive bets throughout the year and walked away with the largest legal winning in sports betting history ($75 million) when his hometown team won it all.

Mack owns mattress stores in the Houston area and offers promotional opportunities for customers that buy mattresses from him tied to the success of local sports teams. The clever marketing scheme essentially allows him to come out ahead either through his gambling winnings or his mattress sales.

This year, though, he doesn’t seem super confident in the Astros just yet.

Here’s how risky Mattress Mack got with Astros last year vs 2023

Before last season, Mack took the Astros at +1000 with a $3 million bet (H/T SI reminding me on the exact odds). This year, he only put down $1.9 million on a +600 million bet.

The implied money Mack is risking this year is $1,628,490, whereas last year he implicitly risked $2,727,300 with his preseason bet (I calculate this by using the inverse of the implicit probability multiplied by the total sum of the bet made). So, he’s $1,098,810 less confident in the ‘Stros this year.

Of course, this is a pretty rational way of thinking about sports gambling, when in reality, betting is a very irrational act. The true reality might just be that Mack doesn’t like the odds and thinks he can get a better run for his money later.

But using just the numbers, Mack is risking less this year on the hometown team.

Maybe mattress sales have just been down.

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