BetSided, Betting, MLB, Tampa Bay Rays

Buy into Rays’ historic start before it’s too late (Pitching Pays in October)

It’s getting hard to ignore the Rays as the only undefeated team remaining in baseball, which should worry you if you plan on backing them for any futures bets.

Oddsmakers are already realizing that this 6-0 start is for real, shifting the odds down from 20-to-1 to the +1300 to +1500 range at some books (It’s still at +2000 at BetMGM and +1800 at Caesars!). The only thing on your side right now is the fact that Tampa Bay has only played the Tigers and Nationals so far.

Even considering the competition, their hot start has been historic. The Rays are the first team in 139 years to win each of their first six games by four or more runs, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

It’s not far-fetched to see the Rays – AL East champs in ‘20 and ‘21 – returning to form with a healthier and deeper roster.

Odds to Win AL East

These odds still hold great value at +220 (down from +340), even with Tampa Bay jumping out to an early lead.

The Rays have been dominant in pretty much every facet of the game, scoring the most runs in baseball (44) while also allowing the second-fewest (13). Featuring one of the deepest rotations in baseball, a lights-out bullpen and a lineup with everyday superstars such as Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco, Tampa is one of the most complete teams in the sport.

Meanwhile, the primary competition, the Yankees and Blue Jays, have more obvious flaws.

The Yankees are a formidable opponent with a talent-laden roster, but several of their best players – and especially pitchers – are injury prone. New York is already dealing with injuries to three of its starting pitchers in early April and third baseman Josh Donaldson could hit the IL with a tweaked hamstring.

I’m not convinced Toronto has the pitching depth after Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, with particular concerns for Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi being relied upon too much.

The Rays being listed behind both of these teams just doesn’t make much sense.

Odds to Win World Series

This might feel a little bold to some bettors, but allow me to explain why it’s not.

First of all, the oddsmakers are already buying into the hype — shifting Tampa from 20-to-1 all the way down to 13-to-1 at some books.  Let’s examine why.

Pitching wins in the postseason, as evidenced by the Houston Astros’ domination of the sport over the past few years, headlined by Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. Houston had the second-lowest ERA in both the regular season and the playoffs last year (second only to the Rays in the postseason).

It’s easy to argue that Tampa Bay has the best rotation in baseball. When fully healthy, the Rays will employ a rotation with Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs. Of this group, only Eflin did not have an ERA under 3.00 last season.

Tampa could also turn to several fill-in starters, too, including Josh Fleming, Yonny Chirinos, Luis Patino and (at some point) and Taj Bradley, the No. 20 prospect in the game, according to MLB Pipeline.

In the bullpen, Tampa still has standout relievers in Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Jalen Beeks (all had a sub-2.50 ERA last year).

As of now, the Twins are the only team out to a better pitching start than Tampa, but I don’t trust the injury history of players like Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle (each made less than 25 starts last season).

When you also consider that Tampa FINALLY has a legitimate lineup (league-leading 13 home runs) that has depth pieces like Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls and a couple of top-100 prospects on the way, it’s hard to find a reason to not like this team.

Still +1800 to +2000 at odds at some books, it’s an absolute steal to bet on the Rays right now. This team just went to the World Series in 2002 – losing to the Dodgers to six games – and this team is MUCH better than that squad.

It’s only a matter of time until oddsmakers adjust their lines further. Will you beat them to it?

 Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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