The St. Louis Cardinals social media team will be quick to tell you that Jack Flaherty allowed ZERO hits in his first and only start of the year – a 4-1 win over Toronto.
However, that’s far from telling the whole story. Flaherty walked SEVEN batters in that start, continuously getting himself in and out of jams.
Yet the Cardinals are only slight underdogs on the road at Milwaukee? There’s value to be had here.
Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds
Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction
Flaherty’s performance has been shaky the past few seasons, and I expect that to continue today.
Milwaukee is a patient offense team, evidenced by the fact that they were 4th in walk percentage (9.4%) last season and are currently 2nd (12.9%) through a small sample this season.
Flaherty has been a much worse pitcher on the road in his career, too, averaging over one more walk per nine innings and a full run worse on his ERA away from Busch Stadium.
The pitcher opposing him – Brandon Woodruff – has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for a few years now, with a 13-4 record and a 3.05 ERA last season.
Milwaukee is also undergoing an offensive renaissance this season, averaging over 6 runs per game through six games with several rookie call-ups, like Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell and Joey Wiemer already making a big impact.
Bet on Milwaukee to win the first five innings by multiple runs due to their massive pitching advantage and patient offense.
Pick: Milwaukee First 5 Innings Run Line
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.