The MLB slate on this Thursday afternoon kicks off very early with Game 4 between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves.
The Braves have taken the first three and everyone in Atlanta is getting their brooms out of the closet as they look for a four-game sweep. The Braves are 17-8 and bouncing back very well from getting swept by Houston and losing four-straight games before this series. They lead the NL East and Miami is third at 12-13.
To try and avoid the sweep, Miami turns to Braxton Garrett. The left-hander has made three starts and one appearance out of the bullpen this season and carries a 1-0 record with a 2.84 ERA. The Braves go with Kyle Wright who is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA.
Despite maybe having an edge on the mound, the Marlins are underdogs on the road in Game 4 as they face the sweep.
Marlins vs. Braves odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Braves prediction and pick
The Marlins should like their matchup on the mound because Garrett has been strong this year. His first outing of the year was from the bullpen, but he’s started three games since and has only allowed four earned runs in his starts with 16 strikeouts and three walks. There are just two problems.
Garrett hasn’t gone longer than 5.2 in any start and the most pitches he’s thrown is 85 as he continues to stretch out from the bullpen into a starter. This means Miami’s bullpen needs to cover 3+ innings tonight and they have a 4.56 ERA which is 24th in baseball.
Garrett is left-handed and the Braves hitters will be licking their lips to face a lefty. They are third in the league in team OPS against lefties, .901 with a league best 14 home runs. The Braves have three hitters with over 25 at-bats vs. left-handers, an OPS over 1.000, and exactly three home runs: Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley.
None of those factors are really Garrett’s fault, but it could lead to a rough game for the Miami pitching staff and a high-scoring game. Especially because Wright has allowed nine earned runs over 13.2 innings with 11 strikeouts to eight walks with two hit batters. He’s allowing far too much traffic on the base paths and that makes me love the over.
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