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Pirates vs. Rays prediction and odds for Wednesday, May 3 (Trust Shane McClanahan)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays have both gotten out to strong stats in the 2023 season, and they actually are the two best teams to bet on the run line so far.

On Wednesday, both teams will start their aces, which has led to a low total for tonight’s game.

Shane McClanahan (5-0, 2.12 ERA) gets the ball against Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller (3-0, 3.53 ERA).

With Pittsburgh sitting in first place in the NL Central, the Rays aren’t in for the easy matchup that many would expect this to be.

Here are the latest odds and my best bet on Wednesday:

Pirates vs. Rays odds, run line and total

PIT @ TB | Odds by DraftKings

DraftKings

May. 03, 5:40 PM

Pittsburgh Pirates

PIT

Tampa Bay Rays

TB

Odds updated May 3rd, 2023, at 11:59 am

Pirates vs. Rays prediction and pick

McClanahan is going to have his work cut out for him in this start, as the Pirates are fourth in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching, but I think he gets it done.

The Rays ace has allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start this season, and the team is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 on the run line in his outings.

That’s going to be tough for the Pirates to compete with, even though Keller has been solid this season.

Keller’s Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 3.68 this season, but he hasn’t been as dominant as McClanahan. The Pirates righty is in the 59th percentile in expected ERA (McClanahan is in the 85th).

Not only that, but Keller has allowed two or more runs in all but one start this season. The Rays are one of the best offenses in baseball, and just a few runs of support should be enough to win with McClanahan on the bump.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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