BetSided, Betting, MLB

Reds vs. Padres prediction and odds for Wednesday, May 3 (Target total as best bet)

The Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres wrap up a three game series out west on Wednesday afternoon.

It’s been a brutal start to the season for Luis Cessa, who has an ERA nearing double digits through five starts and it won’t get any easier against the Padres on the road, but is there signs for better times ahead from the right hander? What about offseason acquisition Seth Lugo of the Padres, who has been rolling since returning to his role as a starter.

Both pitchers may be in good shape on Wednesday afternoon, so how should we attack this game from a betting perspective?

First, the odds:

Reds vs. Padres odds, run line and total

Reds vs. Padres prediction and pick

Cessa’s ERA is tough to look out, 9.55 through five starts, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) shows that it’s quite exaggerated with a mark of 5.74. The issue for Cessa has been that he can’t get any swings and misses, less than four per nine innings and allowing 39 hits in 21 innings.

However, I expect some natural regression against a Padres lineup that strikes out above a league average rate and is batting below it. Cessa will put together somewhat better performances soon, it’s a matter of time.

On the other side, Lugo appears to be one of the best offseason signings amongst contenders, posting a 3.58 ERA with elite control, striking out 26 to six walks so far this season. The Reds have struggled to generate run scoring chances all season, 25th in wRC+, and I believe this can be a slog for the sub-.500 lineup yet again.

Overall, I think better times are ahead for Cessa, but I can’t trust this Reds offense as big underdogs. Instead, I’ll back the under with Lugo in prime form early in the year.

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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