This three-game series between the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins is split 1-1 heading into the finale today. Yesterday, the Twins needed 11 innings to walk-off San Diego and get to 20-17 on the season. With that 4-3 loss yesterday, the Padres fell to 19-18, and they could fall back down to .500 with another loss today.
For today’s matchup on a getaway day, the Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound against Bailey Ober for the Twins. Darvish enters with a 3.19 ERA and a record of 2-2 in six starts while Ober comes in only having made three starts, but with a 2-0 record and 0.98 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds for Game 3 of this interleague series.
Padres vs. Twins odds, run line and total
Padres vs. Twins prediction and pick
April 23 was the first time that Bailey Ober took the mound this season, but he’s been worth the wait. The 6-foot-9 giant is not the hard thrower you would expect in a frame like that, but his speciality so far has been not allowing any hard contact.
His hard hit rate is 94th percentile and his wOBA is .209 so far which is 97th percentile. He’s been very good, but he’s also had some luck in his three outings with a .217 batting average on balls in play which is way down from the league average .281.
BABIP is a very important indicator for pitchers who rely on getting soft contact and don’t have high whiff rates or strikeout rates.
Players are going to put the ball in play against Ober and eventually those balls are going to find the gaps. His expected ERA is 2.99 and FIP is 2.55, so everything is saying that regression is coming for Ober after a fantastic start to the year.
Juan Soto is finally turning this around as a Padre with an OPS north of 1.000 in the past seven days. He has his OPS up to .860 for the year and that’s going to keep rising.
The San Diego lineup hasn’t been consistently dominant, but they’ll give Darvish enough run support to get out of Minnesota with a win.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change