The Rangers continue to hold a firm lead on the AL West, two-and-a-half games up on the second place Angles and three up on the third place Astros and have a great opportunity to bolster its standing in the division against the last place Athletics, who are the worst team in baseball.
Texas will send out Jon Gray on Saturday, who has been solid in his second season with the Rangers, but has some underlying regression looming, in Oakland while the A’s have J.P. Sears on the bump, a left hander hoping for better results this season after a poor run to start the year.
How should we bet this one? Before we get to that, let’s look at the odds:
Rangers vs. Athletics odds, run line and total
Rangers vs. Athletics prediction and pick
Gray finished his first season in Texas strong, completing it with a sub-4.00 ERA and it has carried over into this season with a 3.82 mark despite diminishing strikeout numbers (down from about 10 to six per nine innings this year). However, Gray’s metrics indicate he may be running a bit lucky, so far with a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 5.63, which can be translated as Gray getting some positive variance once the ball is in play.
However, the Athletics won’t take advantage. This lineup is hitting just .233 as a group and won’t have the pitching to keep this game within striking distance.
The Rangers are an elite hitting lineup, fifth in overall batting average and seventh against left handed pitching, which is going to play a role against Sears. The left hander has an ERA north of 5.00 and has allowed at least four runs in three of his past four starts. Further, the A’s have the worst bullpen ERA in the big leagues by more than half a run of the second worst team.
Ultimately, Gray has regression ahead, but the A’s aren’t the team to make him pay given its own issues on the mound. Take the road favorite.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.