The Atlanta Braves are looking to avoid a sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday in Toronto.
The Braves have dropped three straight games, but they are still in first place in the AL East this season. Collin McHugh (1-0, 3.38 ERA) will get the start as an opener for the Braves on Mother’s Day.
Toronto will send lefty Yusei Kikuchi (5-0, 3.35 ERA) to the mound for this matchup, and while his numbers look great, he could be a regression candidate as the season goes on.
Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this game on Sunday:
Braves vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total
Braves vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick
The Blue Jays have dominated this series, but I’m fading Kikuchi in this game.
The lefty’s numbers look great this season, and the Jays are 6-1 in his starts, but he is primed to take a step back soon.
Kikuchi’s Fielding Independent Pitching is 5.01, nearly two runs higher than his ERA this season. Now, he has to take on an Atlanta team that crushes lefties, ranking second in MLB in OPS against them.
Atlanta’s offense is due to get going, and the team has the bullpen advantage this season, posting a slightly lower ERA than Toronto’s.
McHugh has been solid, so as long as the Braves’ pen holds up, I expect the offense to do enough damage against the Jays’ lefty to win this game.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.