The San Francisco Giants just became a favorite to land Aaron Judge in one sportsbook. What does that mean?
The baseball world has gotten a few marginal signings over the last couple of days to hold it over for a bit until the ultimate MLB free agency splash. Let’s be honest, though, nothing is going to satisfy fans until they know where the big names are going.
Aaron Judge sits atop that list as the No. 1 free agent available this offseason.
And though you could grasp at straws by looking at things like whether or not “New York” is still in Judge’s Instagram bio, a better indicator of where he’ll go might be sportsbook odds.
According to one sportsbook (via KNBR), the San Francisco Giants are the leaders to sign Judge.
Aaron Judge leading oddsmakers choices doesn’t necessarily mean he’s leaning toward SF
One thing that should be understood: Sportsbook odds don’t necessarily align with what oddsmakers think will actually happen. That’s part of the calculus for setting odds lines, but lines are also set to entice bettors to put money down on certain outcomes.
Oddsmakers could move the line to incentivize a significant amount of Giants bets, hoping that the Yankees (or another team) is the actual most likely outcome to keep from having to pay out. Sportsbooks are businesses, not probability models, after all.
There’s definitely smoke around the Giants, though. Judge is confirmed to have met with them, and the world knows he grew up in California, so he’d be closer to family.
In the end, a sportsbook moving the line to favor the Giants is notable, but definitely not a written-in-stone outcome. Keep an eye on things, as Judge has reportedly gotten a massive offer from the Yankees that is sure to set the open on the financial side of things.