MINNEAPOLIS, MN – APRIL 08: Luis Garcia #77 of the Houston Astros looks on against the Minnesota Twins in the fourth inning of the game at Target Field on April 8, 2023 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Twins defeated the Astros 9-6. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
After losing a key starter to Tommy John surgery, the Houston Astros may have to look at the trade market to fill a sizeable gap in their rotation.
A few days after being placed on the 15-day IL with right elbow discomfort, the Astros and starting pitcher Luis Garcia were met with the news that he will miss the rest of this season, and in all likelihood a good portion of 2024 as he undergoes Tommy John surgery. A key part of the rotation, Garcia started off 2023 allowing 12 runs in six games, making for an ERA of 4.00, with a 1.30 WHIP.
Although in the bottom 1/10 of the league in fastball velocity, he improved on getting more swing and misses, and was able to avoid the barrel at a better rate this year, despite MLB not allowing him to do his signature ‘rock the baby’ windup.
The Astros should look for a similar type of pitcher. Someone on the lower end of value that can be able to induce soft contact consistently to give you 5 or 6 innings per start.
The Astros should trade for RHP Dane Dunning
After being left as the odd man out of the Rangers rotation, Dunning has been used as a reliever this year, but did start one game against Mike Trout and the Angels where he threw five innings scoreless allowing two hits. Dunning is also in the bottom 1/10th of the league in velocity, and is definitely a pitch to contact player, as he has a ground ball rate of 53%, while also holding a Barrel % of 2.8, meaning that he is a player that rarely gets hit hard.
This type of move would be of lower risk to the Astros, as they would only really need a couple of B- to C+ tier prospects. Dunning isn’t dominant enough to be valued highly, but his consistency plays in his favor. The one reason that would prevent both teams from doing this however is that they are divisional opponents.