WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 27: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets celebrates a home run with Brandon Nimmo #9 during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on September 27, 2020 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
New York Mets fans are going to be thrilled with the team’s 2021 PECOTA projection.
New York Mets fans were riding high after the team made it all the way to the World Series in 2015. What followed was drama, failed expectations, and wasted talent as focus turned to the Wilpon family selling the team.
Billionaire Steve Cohen is now the new owner and that gave the entire franchise a fresh start. Add in the acquisition of Francisco Lindor and this team is a real contender in the National League.
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections agree with that sentiment and have the Mets finishing atop the NL East with a commanding 96-66 record.
Mets projected to have a dominant year
The actual projection is a total of 95.5 wins. That puts New York third in the NL and fourth in all of baseball in terms of wins. The projection also has the Mets winning the NL East by more than 10 games. That would be quite the turnaround for a franchise that hasn’t won more than 90 games since 2006.
Adding Lindor and Carlos Carrasco are the huge moves of the offseason. But don’t forget about the signings of James McCann and Trevor May, along with the retention of Marcus Stroman.
The hope this year is that a superstar like Jacob deGrom can finally have his talent put to good use on a competitive team. The same is true for someone like Pete Alonso, who may finally take his play to another level with Lindor leading the way in the dugout.
There are plenty of Mets fans out there who are going to be wary about such a great prediction. That is just called being safe and limiting expectations. However, the additions and the ability to spend at will makes the Mets more than just an on-paper contender.
The only way the Mets falter is if the NL East is much dominant than what PECOTA projects. The Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves are all expected to finish within the 82-85-win range. Fans of all three teams are likely expecting more and that could eat away at the Mets’ win total.
Fans in Queens finally have hope after five rough seasons. Having an owner who will spend what it takes to win may mean the team only takes on more stars between now and the trade deadline.