The Major League Baseball playoffs start on Friday. Here’s how I see each postseason series playing out, including my World Series prediction.
MLB Playoffs Wild Card Predictions
Tampa Bay Rays (No. 6 seed) vs. Cleveland Guardians (No. 3 seed):
Winner: Guardians.
Entering Wednesday, the Guardians are 25-6 in their last 31 games. They are clicking on all cylinders. Their starting pitching (Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill) and relief pitching (Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, Nick Sandlin and Enyel De Los Santos) are the primary reasons for their surge since the All-Star break.
Sure, the Guardians have questions (mainly at catcher), but I have them advancing to face the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
Seattle Mariners (No. 5 seed) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (No. 4 seed):
Winner: Blue Jays.
These two teams are evenly matched. Just take a look at their regular season numbers:
Mariners: +63 run differential, 192 home runs, .702 OPS, 3.58 ERA, 3.35 bullpen ERA.
Blue Jays: +93 run differential, 199 home runs, .761 OPS, 3.88 ERA, 3.73 bullpen ERA.
Before the regular season, I took the Blue Jays to represent the AL in the World Series. While I now think they’re a longshot to get there, I do expect them to beat the Mariners and move onto the ALDS.
Philadelphia Phillies (No. 6 seed) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (No. 3 seed):
Winner: Cardinals.
The Phillies have the talent to make this series interesting, especially with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop the rotation. Wheeler pitched very well in two starts against the Cardinals earlier this season, but has made only three starts since coming off the Injured List with right forearm tendinitis, and has thrown anywhere from 58-77 pitches. So how stretched out is his arm?
I’m betting on Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, two legitimate MVP candidates, and an improved pitching staff after acquiring Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana to lead the Cardinals to the NLDS.
San Diego Padres (No. 5 seed) vs. New York Mets (No. 4 seed):
Winner: Mets.
Over the last two seasons, the Mets have spent a league-high 289 days in first place. They spent 175 days in first place this season. They have not won the division in either season.
But I like the Mets to defeat the Padres in the wild-card round, and a lot stems from their pitching staff featuring Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt. They have holes on offense, especially if Starling Marte remains out with a broken right middle finger, and will need someone (Francisco Alvarez, Darin Ruf or Mark Vientos) to step up off the bench.
The Padres have the talent to pull off an upset. If they had Fernando Tatis Jr., this pick might be different.
MLB Playoffs Divisional Round Predictions
Cleveland Guardians (No. 3 seed) vs. New York Yankees (No. 2 seed):
Winner: Yankees.
This is where having the first-round bye will be a significant advantage for the Yankees. While the Guardians will have to use their top 2-3 starting pitchers in the wild-card round, the Yankees’ rotation (and entire roster) will enter this series fresh.
The Guardians enter the postseason scorching hot. But the Yankees, led by Aaron Judge, will move on to the ALCS. One thing to watch for the Yankees: while Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Jameson Taillon get most of the attention in the rotation, Luis Severino has been brilliant for New York this season, and their careful usage of the right-hander throughout the regular season ensured that he will be full-go in the postseason.
Toronto Blue Jays (No. 4 seed) vs. Houston Astros (No. 1 seed):
Winner: Astros.
George Springer will try to lead his new team (Blue Jays) into Houston to defeat his former team (Astros).
It won’t go well.
I think the Astros defeat them with little resistance. That isn’t a slight on the Blue Jays — they have plenty of talent — it stems from just how good the Astros are.
St. Louis Cardinals (No. 3 seed) vs. Atlanta Braves (No. 2 seed):
Winner: Braves.
The argument can be made that this Atlanta Braves team is better than their team from a year ago that won the World Series. An American League executive agreed, saying “Braves repeat is not out of the question with how they’re playing.”
High praise. And I totally agree with the executive.
The Braves have more starting pitching depth than last year, though Spencer Strider’s health is something that the team — and other NL playoff teams — are watching closely. They have proven capable of overcoming adversity, injuries (Ozzie Albies, Mike Soroka, Luke Jackson and Adam Duvall), Marcell Ozuna’s arrest and Ronald Acuna’s slow comeback from a torn ACL.
This could be a series where the Cardinals’ lack of a dominant frontline starting pitcher comes into play.
New York Mets (No. 4 seed) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 1 seed):
Winner: Dodgers.
This is really where the Mets would feel the impact of not clinching their division. Not only do they have to take on the Padres in a three-game wild card round, but they’d have to face a juggernaut in Los Angeles that entered the season as the heavy favorites to represent the NL in the World Series.
And they won’t have Max Scherzer available in the early games, as he’s pitching Game 1 of the wild card round. The Mets are considering having Chris Bassitt pitch in Game 2 of the wild card, which would leave Jacob deGrom available for a potential Game 1 in the NLDS, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
The Mets are going to need all hands on deck to beat the Dodgers. I just don’t see it happening.
MLB Playoffs Championship Series Predictions
New York Yankees (No. 2 seed) vs. Houston Astros (No. 1 seed):
Winner: Astros.
This series will be the goods – and the pitching is going to be at the forefront. Just take a look at the American League pitching leaders:
WAR: Justin Verlander, 6.1.
Wins: Justin Verlander, 18.
WHIP: Justin Verlander, 0.86.
Innings Pitched: Framber Valdez, 201.1.
Complete games: Framber Valdez, 3.
Quality Starts: Framber Valdez, 26.
Strikeouts: Gerrit Cole, 257.
I’ve tossed and turned on this prediction, but I keep coming back to how each team has performed in the second half of the season. After the All-Star break, the Yankees were 35-35 while the Astros were 47-24. And even when the Yankees were rolling in the first half, there was one team that gave them troubles: the Astros.
Atlanta Braves (No. 2 seed) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 1 seed):
Winner: Braves
Does this qualify as an upset? It does? OK, well, there we go.
I’ve had three executives with different teams text me in recent days that they believe the Braves will once again represent the NL in the World Series. They are clicking on all cylinders and the Dodgers, while loaded with talent, have unanswered questions as to who will be pitching in the ninth inning after Craig Kimbrel was removed from the closer role.
That being said, this is the best team that the Dodgers have had under Dave Roberts. They have four different starting pitchers with sub-2.60 ERAs. They have a lineup that features Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman, who have the first and second most hits in baseball, becoming just the sixth pair of teammates to do so in baseball history, as Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic pointed out.
This series promises to be nuts. But I like the Braves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4X-nRubqfKA&t=1s
World Series Predictions
Houston Astros (No. 1 seed) vs. Atlanta Braves (No. 2 seed):
Winner: Astros.
A repeat of last season’s World Series! I was very tempted to take the Braves here. Very. They have the best record in baseball since June 1, going 78-33.
The Astros, meanwhile, are not clicking on all cylinders. Dusty Baker admitted so, saying: We’re winning, but we’re not really hot. Full moon is in a couple of days. I believe in that power.”
When the playoffs start, the Astros shine brightest, and I believe that’s the case once again as they win the 2022 World Series.