FanGraphs recently released their 2023 preseason playoff odds, and Atlanta Braves fans are going to love what they see.
With Spring Training ramping up toward the first exhibition games, FanGraphs has released its 2023 Playoff Odds, giving Atlanta Braves fans a reason for unbridled optimism for the upcoming season.
According to FanGraphs, the Braves are projected to finish the 2023 season on top of the NL East with a 94.6-67.4 record and a .584 winning percentage. This gives them a projected three-game cushion over New York Mets at 91.6-70.4.
How does FanGraphs determine the playoff odds?
Per FanGraphs founder David Appelman’s explanation, they start with Steamer and ZiPS projections, with pro-rated playing time from depth charts. Then they find each team’s winning percentage using a Pythagorean Win-Loss formula before running 20,000 simulations of the full 162-game schedule.
And voila … playoff odds!
This process provides win-loss projections plus the probability of teams winning their division, clinching a bye, clinching a wild card berth, making the playoffs and winning the World Series.
Note: Probability and odds are not the same. The term “odds” is used loosely here. The numbers used are the probability, or chance, of the outcomes occurring.
What are the Atlanta Braves chances of making the playoffs?
Good news for Braves fans here, as their team is being given a 92.4% probability of reaching the postseason, by far the highest in the majors.
The calculations give Atlanta a 56% probability of winning the division, with a 50.3% chance at clinching a bye through the first round. Even if Atlanta’s season doesn’t go as expected, they still have a 36.4% chance at a Wild Card berth.
Here are the full playoff odds for the NL East:
Atlanta Braves – 92.4%
New York Mets – 84.1%
Philadelphia Phillies – 55.5%
Miami Marlins – 17.5%
Washington Nationals – 0.1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the World Series?
According to FanGraphs, the Braves have a 14.6% chance of winning the World Series this year.
This means that of the 20,000 simulations, the Braves won the World Series 14.6% of the time. Not bad at all.
But what other teams will challenge Atlanta this year?
Behind the Braves are the San Diego Padres, with an 11.9% chance at the title, and the New York Yankees, at 10.5%. The Houston Astros and Mets round out the top five contenders at 9.9% and 9.1%, respectively.
While Atlanta fans might want to start planning the parade route, we are still weeks away from meaningful games. Projections are fun, but remember that players and teams outperform and underperform expectations every year.