Betting on Major League Baseball can be tough, but if you’ve bet against one pitcher this season, you’re hitting a perfect 1.000.
Kansas City Royals starter Jordan Lyles has made 13 starts in 2023, and the Royals are 0-13 in those games. Lyles himself has earned the loss in 10 of his 13 starts, just an awful, awful start to a season.
Despite this crazy trend, Lyles is set as a… favorite (!!) against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday night.
To make matters worse, the Royals are one of the worst home teams in all of baseball, going 9-24 at Kauffman Stadium this season.
Reds vs. Royals odds, run line and total
Reds vs. Royals prediction and best bet
There’s only one way to wager on this game, and that’s to fade Lyles until he finally leads Kansas City to a win.
The veteran right-hander has terrible advanced numbers, ranking in the 11th percentile in barrel percentage, 14th percentile in whiff percentage and 21st percentile in expected ERA. That’s led to him posting a 6.84 ERA and 6.01 Fielding Independent Pitching this season.
In 11 of his 13 starts, Lyles has allowed at least four runs, putting Kansas City in a major hole almost every night. The Royals bullpen hasn’t done much to help either, ranking 29th in the league with a 4.95 ERA on the season.
This is a gift that Lyles and Kansas City are set as favorites in this game. Fade him and get ready to cash those tickets.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.