The Miami Marlins have been one of the bigger surprises in the 2023 season, sitting in second place in the National League East.
They take on a division rival, the Washington Nationals, on Sunday afternoon with two southpaws on the bump.
Patrick Corbin (4-7, 4.81 ERA) is on the mound for the Nationals against Miami’s Jesus Luzardo (5-5, 4.17 ERA).
Luzardo has a 3.58 Fielding Independent Pitching this season, but he’s struggled this month, giving up five earned runs in two of his three starts.
Let’s dive into the odds for this game and my best bet:
Marlins vs. Nationals odds, run line and total
Marlins vs. Nationals prediction and pick
Miami isn’t known for its offense, but the team has been dominant against left-handed pitching this season, ranking fifth in Major League Baseball in OPS against southpaws.
The Nationals haven’t been as bad in Corbin starts this season (7-7) as they were in 2022, but the veteran still has allowed at least two runs in every start this season, putting up a Fielding Independent Pitching over 5.00.
That’s going to make things tough for a Washington offense that is 23rd in the league in OPS this season (although the Nats have been better against lefties).
Luzardo needs a bounce-back showing in this game after getting tagged for six runs against the Seattle Mariners, but I’m still confident in him.
He has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.58 this season, showing that he’s been better than his ERA. He’s been extremely unlucky on batted balls in play, with opponents hitting .335 on those. Last season, they hit .254.
I’ll trust Miami to take this Sunday matinee.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.